Marketing
Test causal stories and notice when familiarity masquerades as insight.
Thinking practices that matter here
- Evidence & Epistemology
Correlation is not causation
Things that move together, or one after the other, are not yet a cause.
- Evidence & Epistemology
Confirmation bias
A hunch can steer you toward the evidence that flatters it.
- Learning & Metacognition
Illusions of competence
A clear page can feel like a clear idea. Those are different.
- Logic & Reasoning
False dilemma
Two options are presented as the whole choice when nobody has shown that.
A sample scenario
Sales rose in the same week as a campaign. What else moved, and how would you check the causal claim?