Management
Choose under uncertainty and keep process quality separate from lucky results.
Thinking practices that matter here
- Judgement & Decision-Making
Decisions and outcomes
A careful choice can turn out badly, and a reckless one can get lucky.
- Judgement & Decision-Making
Opportunity cost
The cost of a choice includes the best thing you do not do.
- Judgement & Decision-Making
Sunk cost
Money and time already spent cannot be recovered by a worse next step.
- Problem-Solving & Creativity
Problem framing
The first wording of a problem is a hypothesis, not the job itself.
A sample scenario
A risky hire worked out well. Was that a good decision, or a good outcome that could have gone either way?