Entrepreneur
Test assumptions, weigh evidence, and choose under uncertainty.
Thinking practices that matter here
- Judgement & Decision-Making
Decisions and outcomes
A careful choice can turn out badly, and a reckless one can get lucky.
- Evidence & Epistemology
Confirmation bias
A hunch can steer you toward the evidence that flatters it.
- Judgement & Decision-Making
Opportunity cost
The cost of a choice includes the best thing you do not do.
- Problem-Solving & Creativity
Problem framing
The first wording of a problem is a hypothesis, not the job itself.
A sample scenario
A founder is sure their launch failed because of the wrong channel. What would have to be true for that story to hold, and what else could explain the result?