Clinical judgement
Keep base rates in view and avoid mistaking a good process for a guaranteed result.
Thinking practices that matter here
- Evidence & Epistemology
Base rates
A striking result still sits inside how common the thing was to begin with.
- Judgement & Decision-Making
Decisions and outcomes
A careful choice can turn out badly, and a reckless one can get lucky.
- Evidence & Epistemology
Confirmation bias
A hunch can steer you toward the evidence that flatters it.
- Problem-Solving & Creativity
Second-order effects
The first result of a change can cause the next result.
A sample scenario
A rare condition is on the differential after a striking symptom. How should prior frequency shape the next step?